Cryptbeam

Premise

Historically, the MVP has been chosen arbitrarily—a mingling of analysis and intuition. This can be great by promoting varying styles of analysis. Broader conversations can launch new names into conversations. Different ideas challenge norms. For this list, I adhere to a strict criteria I’ve developed over the years—an amalgam of analyzing film, statistics, and value-theory. The overarching question I try to answer with these rankings is how well a player sets up a random team to win the championship. (This approach is derivative of the works of analysts like Seth Partnow and Ben Taylor.)

This still limits consideration to the regular season. Expectations for Playoff risers and fallers is irrelevant. I solely care about how well a player sets the team up to succeed in the Playoffs (where “things matter most”). This means actual seeding is less important, insofar as home-court advantage doesn’t play a crucial role in later rounds. To balance these factors, I concocted a championship odds calculator that inputs estimates of player value and games played. (The impact estimates are based on analysis and interpretation.)

The Ladder

10. Ten

The tenth spot is such a toss-up that I may as well treat it like an Honorable Mentions! Names considered for this spot include, as alphabetized:

• • Devin Booker
  • Jimmy Butler
  • Paul George
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
  • James Harden
  • Ja Morant
  • Karl-Anthony Towns

9. Donovan Mitchell

Mitchell has upped his offense to a new level. The stylistic aspect of his game is consistent, but its efficiency is unbelievable. He attacks the rim like a madman and creates tons of offense for the corners. (Now we know Gobert wasn’t the problem.) There’s his shooting… my goodness. His defense has also been serviceable too; after multiple seasons of questionable play on that end, his anticipation and ability to clog passing lanes look better than last year. I don’t see evidence that he’s a clear negative.

8. Anthony Davis

Anthony Davis is… almost back? Not quite there. He’s somewhat close to his 2020 form, though it’s unlikely he reaches it. Any semblance of a jump shot he had during the bubble has recessed, which diminishes his spacing value. He’s also held back on the passing punch he had a few years ago. Regardless, he’s the Defensive Player of the Year in my eyes. Davis has an unmatched combination of valuable and scalable traits on that end, and… my gosh. Name any defensive skill and he’s got it.

7. Jayson Tatum

Tatum is having the most efficient season of his career despite a slight drop in three-point shooting! His shot selection and isolationism are both upgraded from last season. He looks better as an athlete, and that physical aid may help him ascend to “obligatory wing defender in DPOY conversations” territory! (No, seriously, his ball-pressure is some of the most impressive defensive work in the league.) Tatum has a chance to win the actual award because he plays for the game’s best team. On my list, he lands seventh.

6. Giannis Antetokounmpo

This is… weird. He’s still a prolific scorer and playmaker with Defensive Player of the Year chops on the other end. Those things alone make him a mainstay on the upper end of a list like this. However… his offense has come with a lot of opportunity cost so far. Antetokounmpo’s shot outside the paint is lagging hard to start the season, and it drags his overall efficiency below the league average. That’s enough for the major impact metrics to peg him in this range rather than finalist territory.

5. Joel Embiid

Embiid is probably not in the uppermost echelon of scorers in my book. (Even though he’s an incomprehensible isolation scorer.) But as his passing ability trickles in from more opportunities to create, his overall offense looks stronger. He’s not what I’d consider a really “good” passer, but he has enough range on his deliveries to be the primary force on a contending offense. Embiid is still a monster rebounder and low-post defender whose skills check more boxes than most other players in the world.

4. Luka Doncic

Doncic is probably (?) the favorite to win the award, so this may be a surprising placement. I’m not sold on “Luka-Ball” as the next model for great offense. The term “heliocentrism” is thrown around like pennies into a wishing well, but Doncic’s role in the current Mavericks roster demonstrates a drawback. Dallas tends to wear down late in games. Doncic is the most prolific decision-maker in the league, and it seems his relative lack of conditioning weakens the entire attack down the stretch. Regardless, he’s still fourth for me due to an unheralded mix of volume scoring and creation for teammates.

3. Kevin Durant

Durant’s relative True Shooting percentage is 7.7% ahead of the league; once his three-point percentage is up to speed, that number is going to skyrocket his name into contention for the best overall scoring numbers in the league. His un-guardable jump shot is still intact. He’s having the best passing season of his career to my eye—slicing out holes in perimeter coverages with more anticipation and stronger deliveries than ever. Add that to a positive defensive package, and you’ve got a strong MVP candidate.

2. Nikola Jokic

Jokic was the clear-cut MVP of the last two years. His scoring volume isn’t quite up to par yet, and voter fatigue is due to trickle in from the public and voters alike. That’s my estimation as to why he isn’t seen as an obvious finalist. Jokic is the most efficient of the game’s volume scorers, and he’s the best passer on the planet. He’s arguably the most complete offensive player in history. His rim protection as Denver’s primary backline defender still lags behind, which is the only thing holding him back from the top.

1. Stephen Curry

My, oh my… Where to start? Curry is “re-peaking” as the league’s top scorer and shooter, with more than a little airspace above the contenders. His leading spot is probably dependent on a permanent upgrade in his scoring around the rim, where he’s converting at a 76% rate. He has the craft and guile, but likely not the durability and positive aging signals to maintain it for long. (But I’m partial to streakier two-point than three-point improvements.) He’s otherwise Curry doing Curry things, and he’s at the top of virtually every major one-number metric.

Resources

[1] Data from Basketball-Reference, BBall-Index, Thinking Basketball

The Utah Jazz have received a lot of press in these past four weeks. The most surprising team to start the season, are they not? Perhaps. They are (as of the time of this writing) the fourth seed in the West with a positive point differential—worth a double take considering they were seen as a contender to land Victor Wembanyama. “But what does this have to do with Lauri Markkanen?” you ask. That’s a decent question—and the answer has everything to do with All-Star voting! Let’s take a dive into what in the Julius Randle is going on.

The Premise

Historically, All-Stars are selected through a mingling of their performances and their teams’ standings. This is great news for Lauri Markkanen. Why? Let me begin with an assertion—Lauri Markkanen is not an All-Star-level player, but… because of the Jazz’s record and preseason expectations, he might stand a chance to make the All-Star Game. “But… but…” you ask, “if Lauri Markkanen isn’t an All-Star-level player, why does he deserve to make the All-Star Game?”

I’m so glad you asked.

From the perspective that players should be rewarded for their ability or skill, the boost that some receive from being in the right situation is stupid. I’ve already fleshed this out (read here) so I won’t belabor any points. How this is relevant has lots to do with Lauri Markkanen’s case because, like I said, he doesn’t demonstrate All-Star skill but his name is littered in All-Star conversations. This was obvious when I published my first All-Star ballot of the season. My omission of Markkanen from either tier of All-Star consideration implied I did not consider him an All-Star-level player. This is correct. Resisting comments were quick to defend Markkanen’s case:

I clearly disagree with this, don’t I? And what’s the best way to further a point in a caring and considerable manner?—Making the opposing argument as strong as could possibly be.

To the best of my ability, I am going to lay out Lauri Markkanen’s All-Star case—but with a twist. I still only care about his efficacy as a player. Team, teammates, and attributes of the Utah Jazz’s system are irrelevant. I believe All-Stars deserve their recognition for playing like All-Stars, and Markkanen won’t receive a special treatment. So let’s get into it!

Scouting Report

Markkanen has demonstrated solid three-point shooting during his career. His three-point percentage of 36.5% is unspectacular, and right in line with his career average of 36.4%. To me, he provides value as a shooter away from the ball—a stretch four who can catch and shoot at an above-average clip (40.2%), mostly in pick-and-pop situations. On the other hand, he’s an infrequent and inefficient pull-up shooter—a skill crucial to a player’s ability to create offense for teammates in a spaced-out offense. The Jazz have methodically had him work from the corners, spots (in which his three-point percentage is 45.8%) that are valuable real estate. The corners are also outlets for his attacks to the paint.

Markkanen is tall, strong, and sturdy with a fine-tuning of footwork that creates separation between defenders in the paint. He has spins, twists, and twirls that carve out floater-range shots. (Markkanen’s percentage of attempts that are floaters had nearly doubled from its previous high.) Farther downhill, he’s a solid finisher who can draw fouls and convert at high rates—driving about five times per game and finishing at a 76% rate. Markkanen does require “assistance” from teammates’ passes at times; he has burst as a big man, but not enough to get to the rim at will. (He often picks up his dribble only a few steps into the paint.) His bruising and jostling allows him to contend with formidable big men like Bam Adebayo and Anthony Davis close to the basket.

This is where his All-Star case becomes tricky. His scoring punch has been good—not great, for all intents and purposes—without a strong isolation package or slashing ability. His style is suited to play alongside a more demanding offensive force, a truer “number one” who can leverage the pick-and-pop and make timely passes when Markkanen cuts baseline. That’s a pretty good scoring package, but where it falls short is in its ability to boost the value of his lackluster passing. He’s had flashes of range and accuracy, but nothing that—when sifted through—indicates he’s growing into the role of a playmaker. (For instance, the percentage of Markkanen’s assists that end in layups is 21% below the league average.)

His defensive skills are slightly fuzzier to me. Markkanen defends a fair amount of shots at the rim, inducing misses without a high block rate. But any skills he has a rim protector have yet to translate to latent value, such as deterring shots at the rim. Teams are content to attack the rim with Markkanen on the floor, which could be a problem due to his nonexistent presence as a perimeter defender. He exemplifies the Jazz’s inconsistent switch tactics, so he doesn’t content many threes nor is he an avid helper. Without brushing up on his defensive range—which seems unlikely to happen in Utah—Markkanen’s argument as a clearly positive to strong defender seems weak.

The Jazz offense is a suitable place for him to mimic his ideal offensive role: a pick-and-pop, bruising, floater-range specialist who can score at two levels. In Utah, he’s a semi-frequent but undesirable pick-and-roll ball-handler, which is an action teams would want to avoid to build a strong offense. Paired with weak passing, I see Markkanen as a solid third-to-fourth option on a contending offense. Defensively, he’s going to need backline help from a stronger, rangier rim protector; and if he’s the primary rim protector, his team will need to bank on strong defensive play from guards to prevent open three-pointers.

Here are Markkanen’s ranks in high-level impact metrics [1]:

• • Backpicks BPM +2.6 (48th)
  • Basketball-Reference BPM +2.8 (36th)
  • Box RAPTOR +1.7 (80th)
  • EPM +4.7 (23rd)

The Strongest Case

What is Markkanen’s upper bound?—the highest extent to which I can evaluate his impact. If that estimate doesn’t match All-Star level, by the rules of this exercise, Markkanen has no case to be an All-Star. I’ll view each of skills through the rosiest of glasses, give him the benefit of the doubt in all reasonable areas (considering the trade-offs between skill interactions). To start, here are Markkanen’s strengths as a player, by my scouting report:

• • Floater-range footwork
  • Bullying in the paint
  • C&S and screening at the corners
  • Complementary rim protection

I can’t reasonably upgrade his passing, nor is his off-ball package enough for me to say he’d be a “number two” on a contending offense. For that, he’d need rangy, connective passing to and from his corner spots. (In theory, these could lead to more layup passes.) His footwork and physical attributes can dismiss the notion that his scoring near the basket “will eventually cool down.” This version of his scoring—high volume on high efficiency—could be here to stay.

Defensively, I’m still convinced he needs backline help. His opponents are finishing at a low clip when he defends at the hoop, but it doesn’t justify Markkanen’s sedentary defensive role. He could probably help keep a poorer defensive afloat—but without a flank of perimeter defenders or a better rim protector as a failsafe, Markkanen’s defensive package is neither good nor bad. This all goes to say I see a limited ceiling on how highly I can evaluate his defense.

Markkanen’s impact metrics are inconclusive. EPM, which includes tracking data and plus-minus, pegs him at an All-Star level. But RAPTOR also includes these parts (in a varied fashion) and indicates he’s not close to contention! The box-score metrics both agree he’s outside contention. These metrics, in which force-fits to team performance can overstate players on teams that are greater than the sum of their parts (the Jazz), are reluctant to launch Markkanen into All-Star territory. This signal works against his “strongest” case.

Conclusion

Markkanen is not an All-Star.

Returning to the article’s title—what is the Lauri Markkanen Corollary? To my estimation, it’s when a team (the Jazz) jumps out with unexpected success. That team, whoever it may be (the Jazz), plays an egalitarian style, and its success is the function of many contributions from solid or good players, rather than fewer contributions from great players. But this explanation is unsatisfying—it’s too long, takes up too much headspace to put all the pieces together. Thus, the instinct is to look to one player (Markkanen) for the majority or all of his team’s success—the Lauri Markkanen Corollary.

Footnotes

[1] Box RAPTOR is my preferred variant of RAPTOR for all players. Especially early in the season, the plus-minus component is unstable. Markkanen ranks 66th in total RAPTOR.

[2] Data collected from Backpicks, Basketball-Reference, BBall-Index, DunksAndThrees, FiveThirtyEight, NBA, PBPStats.

Every few weeks, I power rank teams based on their likelihood to win the 2023 championship, as decided by me! Last month’s edition was a success by my standards considering I didn’t lose sleep over it. But a lot has changed in the NBA landscape. A lot. Listed alongside each team is its change in rankings from the preseason edition. (NB: The gaps between teams means less in the lower ranks. After the “Good” teams, all odds are essentially zero.)

Let’s Not Talk About It

30. San Antonio Spurs (-3)

Already forgot them.

29. Houston Rockets (-)

28. Detroit Pistons (-3)

27. Orlando Magic (-4)

Weird aesthetics.

26. Charlotte Hornets (-5)

25. Oklahoma City Thunder (+3)

Giddy for Giddey.

Average-ish

24. New York Knicks (-4)

Greek Yogurt.

23. Washington Wizards (-1)

22. Chicago Bulls (-3)

Prototypically average.

21. Utah Jazz (+10)

They have a “salty” flavor to them.

20. Atlanta Hawks (-2)

19. Brooklyn Nets (-9)

18. Los Angeles Lakers (-3)

Deepest of the deepest sleepers.

17. Portland Trail Blazers (+1)

Called it I guess…

Good

16. Indiana Pacers (+10)

15. Minnesota Timberwolves (-3)

14. Miami Heat (-7)

13. Sacramento Kings (+11)

LOLOLOLOLOLOL.

12. Toronto Raptors (+1)

Pretenders

11. Memphis Grizzlies (+3)

10. Denver Nuggets (-2)

Eh.

9. New Orleans Pelicans (+7)

Wow! Cool!

8. Dallas Mavericks (+3)

Strange. Very strange…

7. Philadelphia 76ers (-1)

6. LA Clippers (-2)

They might be a contender. Kawhi. I don’t know.

Contenders

5. Cleveland Cavaliers (+6)

4. Golden State Warriors (-3)

Don’t ask.

3. Phoenix Suns (+3)

2. Milwaukee Bucks (–)

Two of arguably the three strongest DPOY candidates (Antetokounmpo, Lopez) defending the backline; and that doesn’t even begin to scrape Holiday’s defensive impact. The offense will hopefully stop lagging when All-Star Khris Middleton returns.

1. Boston Celtics (+2)

The best offensive team in the NBA designed for repetition and sustainability, poised for even greater success when all the elements of their defensive core return from injury. The clear-cut frontrunner for the 2023 NBA championship in my book.

Nice job?

Monthly data from the NBA begets the fruitless (and slightly masochistic) tradition of ranking players. This post won’t rank players in the typical sense—in, say, an ordered list. Rather, I’m continuing a series I’ve done each of the past two seasons in which I update my All-Star ballot continuously throughout the season. (Read introductory editions for 2021 and 2022 for list structure.) Now, with 13-16 games under the healthy stars’ belts, I’m slightly comfortable indulging myself in this kind of thing. Leave your criticisms in the comments!

Tier 1

Regardless of positional constraints, these players are performing at All-Star levels. (The lower bound of their estimated value matches or exceeds All-Star “level.”) To argue otherwise may earn you the label of a basketball heretic.

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (East)
• Devin Booker (West)
• Jimmy Butler (East)
• Stephen Curry (West)
• Anthony Davis (West)
• Luka Doncic (West)
• Kevin Durant (East)
• Joel Embiid (East)
• De’Aaron Fox (West)
• Paul George (West)
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (West)
• Tyrese Haliburton (East)
• James Harden (East)
• LeBron James (West)
• Nikola Jokic (West)
• Damian Lillard (West)
• Donovan Mitchell (East)
• Ja Morant (West)
• Pascal Siakam (East)
• Jayson Tatum (East)
• Karl-Anthony Towns (West)
• Myles Turner (East)

Tier 2

These players have a larger margin of error associated with their status as All-Star performers. I’d consider these guys to be strong candidates. Whether or not they make the ballot is, in large part, determined by the NBA’s talent distribution at the top and positional constraints.

• Bam Adebayo (East)
• Jarrett Allen (East)
• Jaylen Brown (East)
• DeMar DeRozan (East)
• Darius Garland (East)
• Rudy Gobert (West)
• Draymond Green (West)
• Jrue Holiday (East)
• Brandon Ingram (West)
• Kyrie Irving (East)
• Brook Lopez (East)
• Chris Paul (West)
• Domantas Sabonis (West)
• Zion Williamson (West)
• Trae Young (East)

The Ballot

You know the rules: 5 starters (2 frontcourt, 3 backcourt); 5 reserves (2 frontcourt, 3 backcourt); and 2 wild cards (position negligible). Rosters for both the Eastern and Western Conference.

Eastern Conference

• James Harden
• Donovan Mitchell
• Giannis Antetokounmpo
• Kevin Durant
• Joel Embiid

 

• Darius Garland
• Tyrese Haliburton
• Jimmy Butler
• Pascal Siakam
• Jayson Tatum

 

• Kyrie Irving
• Myles Turner

Western Conference

• Stephen Curry
• Luka Doncic
• Anthony Davis
• Nikola Jokic
• Karl-Anthony Towns

 

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
• Ja Morant
• Paul George
• LeBron James
• Domantas Sabonis

 

• Devin Booker
• De’Aaron Fox

Thoughts

The NBA’s talent distribution makes it increasingly harder to choose All-Stars in its current roster format. Before, I’ve done up to 4 tiers of players to be considered for All-Star, in which the gaps among tiers were fairly recognizable. But this year, I somehow managed to fill 37 spots in 2 tiers. (Hence, I omit the last 2 tiers.) Stat “inflation” is one thing to consider in which the values of counting statistics like points and assists are lower than in seasons past. But there’s also a clear distinction between current and previous talent distributions. Thus, it may be worth revising the definition of an All-Star. (For example, expanding the number of roster spots to 15.)

This season has legitimately been a fever dream. The Kings and Pacers have 2 All-Stars each (according to me). Brook Lopez and Myles Turner are officially on my agenda. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander might be the box-score MVP if not for an impromptu Stephen Curry mega-explosion. (Curry is currently my MVP frontrunner.) At the end of the day, I’m glad doing this didn’t worsen my tension headache. Please leave criticisms below! I don’t watch every game or look at every stat.

(Picture via NBA)

I typically don’t do things like this (because I think they’re pointless), but this season is as good as any for the masochistic practice of predictions! Yes, these will, in part, be your typical run-of-the-mill record predictions, but I’ll also throw in some power rankings to spice it up. Let me start by differentiating between those two things: 1) The win predictions are, shockingly, the number of games I estimate a team to win in 2023. By no means are they accurate or reliable, but they serve as ballparking values for more-or-less how I’m feeling about a team right now. 2) The power rankings, or the actual order in which teams are ranked, are based on the likelihood that I think each team will win the title. These are what I’d consider my actual “ranking” of each team. That means I may project a higher win total in the regular season for a team whose championship odds are superseded by another. With that wrapped up, let’s get into the nitty-gritty!

(NB: I don’t end up predicting wins. Fairly self-explanatory.)

“Just wait and see, five years from now…”

30. Utah Jazz

Yikes.

29. Houston Rockets

Jalen Green could drop 20 a game. Looking out for him to blossom into a real offensive threat in the near future.

28. Oklahoma City Thunder

27. San Antonio Spurs

Sometimes I forget they exist.

26. Indiana Pacers

25. Detroit Pistons

Minefield of young talent. Not nearly fleshed out enough to make a push for anything, but I am eager to explore the synergies between their rookies and sophomores.

24. Sacramento Kings

Mike Brown as HC will make them an interesting watch. Preseason has shown us some gritty, switch-heavy defense, although the Kings have been treating the preseason like it’s the NBA Finals. They have an interesting assortment of players who are worth the view.

23. Orlando Magic

Average

22. Washington Wizards

I am oddly intrigued by this team. Not because I think they’ll be good, but because Beal-Porzingis will be an interesting offensive combo spread over time. Would tune into several of their games for Deni Avdija alone.

21. Charlotte Hornets

20. New York Knicks

19. Chicago Bulls

18. Portland Trail Blazers

Hmm…

17. Atlanta Hawks

16. New Orleans Pelicans

Looking like they could ascend to “good” in the near future if the indicators show up. Throwing Zion into Ingram-McCollum offenses could be dangerous (for the opponents). But they did lose Tony Snell. Probably near the top of my watchlist. Basically tied with next team.

15. Los Angeles Lakers

Darwin Ham might be a basketball genius. Anthony Davis’s health is obviously key if they want to come close to contending. LeBron will probably still receive soft MVP consideration. Austin Reaves will manhandle your favorite backcourt. But the Westbrook signals don’t look great so far, especially on defense. If that domino doesn’t fall, I don’t see a spectacular ceiling for this team.

Good

14. Memphis Grizzlies

13. Toronto Raptors

Canadians are too defensive of their basketball team for me to risk ranking them any lower. But seriously, the Raptors are looking like they’ll be a good team. They’re young and complement each other well enough, so some upside is feasible. Not quite past that play-in level. Not quite average.

12. Minnesota Timberwolves

I don’t know.

11. Cleveland Cavaliers

10. Brooklyn Nets

By now, I’m just playing Russian Roulette trying to get this right.

Pretenders

9. Dallas Mavericks

8. Denver Nuggets

Lots of offense! Lots of offense! Jokic-MPJ-Murray lineups, in the spirit of throwing out predictions, will produce the highest offensive ratings in history this season. That’s it. Keep Murray healthy. Don’t let Michael Porter Jr. handle the basketball. Jokic. Defensive questions.

7. Miami Heat

6. Phoenix Suns

No, I don’t think this team fell off a cliff. Well-coached, Devin Booker is a legitimate primary offender (get it?) at this point, so Chris Paul’s aging curve at least has a failsafe. Losing JaVale McGee is only a minor tragedy. Not sure if this is going to be a team that runs away with another top seed, though.

Contenders

5. Philadelphia 76ers

De’Anthony Melton and P.J. Tucker are sneaky good pieces. Harden and Embiid shared minutes will produce some of the highest offensive ratings in the league, and they’re looking like a contender for one of the league’s best defenses too. Montrezl Harrell? I really don’t know.

4. LA Clippers

Literally flipped a coin to choose between them and Philly. No, I’m not kidding! I know that sounds like a joke, but it’s not.

3. Boston Celtics

This team got better on paper, but… Until they demonstrate in the regular season that the off-court predicaments are going to bleed into the on-court stuff to a “significant” level, I’m riding with the talent. Malcolm Brogdon is such a savvy addition to this roster, brings the pick-and-roll chops their offense would have thrived with last year. Timelord’s knee and the other stuff likely will cost them several games in the regular season, so let’s hope for them that home-court advantage falls their way (even if it’s not crucial).

2. Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks added Joe Ingles! Let us fall to our knees and rejoice in this miracle! But seriously, that was quite the player to bring in during an offseason in which they lost no rotational pieces. Milwaukee underperformed in the regular season last year and lost a cutthroat semis that was decided by Grant Williams’s hot hand. This team is legitimately great and there should be no surprises if they capture their second title in three seasons next June.

1. Golden State Warriors

I’m liking Golden State to repeat for the championship this year. (Not particularly worried about the Draymond situation yet.) Donte DiVincenzo looks to be a prototypical Warrior, passing to cutters with solid perimeter defense off the bench. But Gary Payton II will be sorely missed at the point-of-attack. That dude was legitimately a monster and his contributions will never be fully appreciated. JaMychal Green also has some passing chops apparently, is a nice movement shooter you can stick in the corner and pull defenses. James Wiseman is not a finished product, but he’s big (even if his handle is vulnerable), incredible lateral quickness for his size, with a wide dunk radius that adds some versatility to the Warriors’ passing targets with lob finishing. Poole continues to grow, Curry (no explanation needed), and Draymond doesn’t fall off a cliff, and this team is a sure contender.

Time to roast me in the comments!